wvmat.com

Any thoughts for states?

Braxton Amos will win his weight class.

I ran the AAA brackets through some tournament software and I've attached the results. I might do it for AA/A if I get some time this week.

Unless something crazy with bonus points happens, South will run away with it with Wheeling Park in 2nd and Parkersburg in distant 3rd. There is a tight grouping afterwards, so bonus points will matter there.

Criteria I used to pick match winners
1) Rankings in latest poll
1a) If ranked in a different weight class, I just inserted them into their new weight class at the same ranking
2) For unranked wrestlers:
2a) Record as posted on the pairings sheet
2b) If record was close to even, I picked the one with the higher place finish

For bonus points, I assumed
1) Ranked will pin unranked
2) 1-4 ranked will pin 7+
3) 1-4 will major 5-6
4) 5-6 will major 7+

cspranger wrote:Braxton Amos will win his weight class.

It will be close but I think he finds a way to win.

My box of popcorn will be eaten watching AAA 285 Champ match. If the top two ranked make it to the finals. Should be a great rematch!!!

ncref wrote:I ran the AAA brackets through some tournament software and I've attached the results. I might do it for AA/A if I get some time this week.

Unless something crazy with bonus points happens, South will run away with it with Wheeling Park in 2nd and Parkersburg in distant 3rd. There is a tight grouping afterwards, so bonus points will matter there.

Criteria I used to pick match winners
1) Rankings in latest poll
1a) If ranked in a different weight class, I just inserted them into their new weight class at the same ranking
2) For unranked wrestlers:
2a) Record as posted on the pairings sheet
2b) If record was close to even, I picked the one with the higher place finish

For bonus points, I assumed
1) Ranked will pin unranked
2) 1-4 ranked will pin 7+
3) 1-4 will major 5-6
4) 5-6 will major 7+

Them is some really good predictions... I must say.

I apologize to the tenderhearted Ripley dad who voiced his displeasure at rankings and predictions and even posting results earlier this year. These are guesses and if my guesses upset you enough to lose sleep I recommend consulting a physician.

A/AA
106 Short
113 Hodges
120 Raike
126 Jones
132 Dawson
138 Hall
145 Lusher
152 Trigg but Friday morning quarters between Adams and Ward will be fun to watch
160 Whiting
170 Williams
182 Kotsko
195 Kump the big question is will Patterson recover from his injury at Regionals and make the finals? Will he forfeit again in the finals?
220 Cook battle of undefeateds in the semis with Summers
285 Frazier


AAA
106 Dolan
113 Bowen
120 Johnson
126 Holt
132 The Animal Miller
138 Quiocho
145 Roberts
152 Best
160 Hinzman
170 Berisford
182 Carman semi vs Lanham could go either way
195 Swisher battle of undefeated wrestlers in finals with Jace Bradbury
220 Amos
285 Haga

Team Champions
A West Greenbrier/Oak Glen
AA Indy/Point close team race
AAA South/PHS

Coach Awards
A Oak Glen
AA Point
AAA Huntington

OW
A G. Cook
AA Hall/Frazier
AAA Amos/Swisher

Studcradle wrote:I apologize to the tenderhearted Ripley dad who voiced his displeasure at rankings and predictions and even posting results earlier this year. These are guesses and if my guesses upset you enough to lose sleep I recommend consulting a physician.

A/AA
106 Short
113 Hodges
120 Raike
126 Jones
132 Dawson
138 Hall
145 Lusher
152 Trigg but Friday morning quarters between Adams and Ward will be fun to watch
160 Whiting
170 Williams
182 Kotsko
195 Kump the big question is will Patterson recover from his injury at Regionals and make the finals? Will he forfeit again in the finals?
220 Cook battle of undefeateds in the semis with Summers
285 Frazier


AAA
106 Dolan
113 Bowen
120 Johnson
126 Holt
132 The Animal Miller
138 Quiocho
145 Roberts
152 Best
160 Hinzman
170 Berisford
182 Carman semi vs Lanham could go either way
195 Swisher battle of undefeated wrestlers in finals with Jace Bradbury
220 Amos
285 Haga

Team Champions
A West Greenbrier/Oak Glen
AA Indy/Point close team race
AAA South/PHS

Coach Awards
A Oak Glen
AA Point
AAA Huntington

OW
A G. Cook
AA Hall/Frazier
AAA Amos/Swisher

A/AA 126?
Bold Prediction.

I don’t think Trigg will win 152, he will have to get through Triplett. I believe it will be between Kiszka, Ward, or Adams. It depends who wins that semifinal, because that will be the semifinal to watch!

Wow 126 is crazy!!! He isn’t better than Starkey or Bartee I say bartee wins this one

wrestlingfan23202 wrote:Wow 126 is crazy!!! He isn’t better than Starkey or Bartee I say bartee wins this one

Agreed

Studcradle wrote:I apologize to the tenderhearted Ripley dad who voiced his displeasure at rankings and predictions and even posting results earlier this year. These are guesses and if my guesses upset you enough to lose sleep I recommend consulting a physician.

A/AA
106 Short
113 Hodges
120 Raike
126 Jones
132 Dawson
138 Hall
145 Lusher
152 Trigg but Friday morning quarters between Adams and Ward will be fun to watch
160 Whiting
170 Williams
182 Kotsko
195 Kump the big question is will Patterson recover from his injury at Regionals and make the finals? Will he forfeit again in the finals?
220 Cook battle of undefeateds in the semis with Summers
285 Frazier


AAA
106 Dolan
113 Bowen
120 Johnson
126 Holt
132 The Animal Miller
138 Quiocho
145 Roberts
152 Best
160 Hinzman
170 Berisford
182 Carman semi vs Lanham could go either way
195 Swisher battle of undefeated wrestlers in finals with Jace Bradbury
220 Amos
285 Haga

Team Champions
A West Greenbrier/Oak Glen
AA Indy/Point close team race
AAA South/PHS

Coach Awards
A Oak Glen
AA Point
AAA Huntington

OW
A G. Cook
AA Hall/Frazier
AAA Amos/Swisher

Good picks in AAA.... hoooooowwwwwwever, I see two glaring picks you may wanna re-think. 126 and 170.
No offense to anyone,( even North End peeps).

I only did some of AAA.
My predictions were based off:
1. Head-to-head
2. Previous state place
3. Common Opponents
4. Feb 8 Polls
5. Records

106
1. Dolan (SMHS) Fall
2. Jordan (Cabell)
3. Cochran (JM) 8-3
4. Lyles (Hunt)
5. Tachoir (Martinsburg) Fall
6. Taggart (WP)

113
1. Bowen (Hunt) 5-2
2. Easton (South)
3. Shelek (WP) Fall
4. Carman (JM)
5. Williams (SMHS) 9-1
6. Curry (Hamp.)

120
1. Donahue (PHS) 4-2 OT
2. Johnson (South)
3. Hobbs (Buck) 7-6
4. Gray (JM)
5. Richardson (WP) 6-4
6. Doss (Hunt)

132
1. Miller (Muss) 5-1
2. Simpson (Univ)
3. Hardy (Wash) 5-4 OT
4. Ackerman (PHS)
5. Harper (SVHS) Fall
6. Mullins (G. East)

138
1. Quiocho (South) 12-7
2. Moler (PHS)
3. Mitchell (WP) 2-0
4. Vaughn (Cabell)
5. Cutright (Buck) 5-0
6. Dempsey (Hunt)

145
1. Roberts (South) 6-3
2. Shelek (WP)
3. Petry (Riverside) 2-1
4. Bennett (Univ)
5. Resch (Martinsburg) 1-0
6. Atkins (SA)

152
1. Best (PHS) 12-6
2. Dempsey (Hunt)
3. Shamblin (South) 14-8
4. Gooch (WP)
5. Bailey (SA) Tech 19-4
6. Newman (Brk)

170
1. Stewart (Hunt) fall
2. King (PHS)
3. Casto (SA) 7-4
4. Berisford (JM)
5. Elswick (GW)
6. Timberlake (WP)

studcradle, I agree with my cousin truesouthfaninhunt on your 170 pick. I have
1-Stewart-Hunt
2-Elswick-GW
3-Casto-SA
4-Timberlake-WP
5-Berisford-Uni
6-King-PHS

twinkie285 wrote:I only did some of AAA.
My predictions were based off:
1. Head-to-head
2. Previous state place
3. Common Opponents
4. Feb 8 Polls
5. Records

106
1. Dolan (SMHS) Fall
2. Jordan (Cabell)
3. Cochran (JM) 8-3
4. Lyles (Hunt)
5. Tachoir (Martinsburg) Fall
6. Taggart (WP)

113
1. Bowen (Hunt) 5-2
2. Easton (South)
3. Shelek (WP) Fall
4. Carman (JM)
5. Williams (SMHS) 9-1
6. Curry (Hamp.)

120
1. Donahue (PHS) 4-2 OT
2. Johnson (South)
3. Hobbs (Buck) 7-6
4. Gray (JM)
5. Richardson (WP) 6-4
6. Doss (Hunt)

132
1. Miller (Muss) 5-1
2. Simpson (Univ)
3. Hardy (Wash) 5-4 OT
4. Ackerman (PHS)
5. Harper (SVHS) Fall
6. Mullins (G. East)

138
1. Quiocho (South) 12-7
2. Moler (PHS)
3. Mitchell (WP) 2-0
4. Vaughn (Cabell)
5. Cutright (Buck) 5-0
6. Dempsey (Hunt)

145
1. Roberts (South) 6-3
2. Shelek (WP)
3. Petry (Riverside) 2-1
4. Bennett (Univ)
5. Resch (Martinsburg) 1-0
6. Atkins (SA)

152
1. Best (PHS) 12-6
2. Dempsey (Hunt)
3. Shamblin (South) 14-8
4. Gooch (WP)
5. Bailey (SA) Tech 19-4
6. Newman (Brk)

170
1. Stewart (Hunt) fall
2. King (PHS)
3. Casto (SA) 7-4
4. Berisford (JM)
5. Elswick (GW)
6. Timberlake (WP)

120 is a little questionable. I feel after the Region 4 results it will be a little mixed up

twinkie285 wrote:I only did some of AAA.
My predictions were based off:
1. Head-to-head
2. Previous state place
3. Common Opponents
4. Feb 8 Polls
5. Records

106
1. Dolan (SMHS) Fall
2. Jordan (Cabell)
3. Cochran (JM) 8-3
4. Lyles (Hunt)
5. Tachoir (Martinsburg) Fall
6. Taggart (WP)

113
1. Bowen (Hunt) 5-2
2. Easton (South)
3. Shelek (WP) Fall
4. Carman (JM)
5. Williams (SMHS) 9-1
6. Curry (Hamp.)

120
1. Donahue (PHS) 4-2 OT
2. Johnson (South)
3. Hobbs (Buck) 7-6
4. Gray (JM)
5. Richardson (WP) 6-4
6. Doss (Hunt)

132
1. Miller (Muss) 5-1
2. Simpson (Univ)
3. Hardy (Wash) 5-4 OT
4. Ackerman (PHS)
5. Harper (SVHS) Fall
6. Mullins (G. East)

138
1. Quiocho (South) 12-7
2. Moler (PHS)
3. Mitchell (WP) 2-0
4. Vaughn (Cabell)
5. Cutright (Buck) 5-0
6. Dempsey (Hunt)

145
1. Roberts (South) 6-3
2. Shelek (WP)
3. Petry (Riverside) 2-1
4. Bennett (Univ)
5. Resch (Martinsburg) 1-0
6. Atkins (SA)

152
1. Best (PHS) 12-6
2. Dempsey (Hunt)
3. Shamblin (South) 14-8
4. Gooch (WP)
5. Bailey (SA) Tech 19-4
6. Newman (Brk)

170
1. Stewart (Hunt) fall
2. King (PHS)
3. Casto (SA) 7-4
4. Berisford (JM)
5. Elswick (GW)
6. Timberlake (WP)

120 is a little questionable. I feel after the Region 4 results it will be a little mixed up

TrueSouthFanInPburg wrote:studcradle, I agree with my cousin truesouthfaninhunt on your 170 pick. I have
1-Stewart-Hunt
2-Elswick-GW
3-Casto-SA
4-Timberlake-WP
5-Berisford-Uni
6-King-PHS

Berisford wrestles for John Marshall.

After rethinking the 170 weight class and doing a couple hours of research on here my 6 placers have changed. I now have;
1-Stewart-Hunt
2-King-PHS
3-Casto-SA
4-Berisford-JM
5-Timberlake-WP
6-Linder-PS

here's my top 5 teams
1-South
2-WP
3-Hunt
4-PHS
weight class winners
106-Dolan-SM
113-Shelek-WP
120Johnson-PS
126-Windland-PS
132-Simpkins-UNI
138-Quiocho-PS
145-Roberts-PS
152-Shamblin-PS
160-Hinzman-PS
170-Stewart-HUNT
182-Lanham-HUNT
195-Swisher-HAMP
220-Amos-PS
285-Haga-PS

Remember
, there's always upsets and I've picked a few here.

TrueSouthFanInPburg wrote:here's my top 5 teams
1-South
2-WP
3-Hunt
4-PHS
weight class winners
106-Dolan-SM
113-Shelek-WP
120Johnson-PS
126-Windland-PS
132-Simpkins-UNI
138-Quiocho-PS
145-Roberts-PS
152-Shamblin-PS
160-Hinzman-PS
170-Stewart-HUNT
182-Lanham-HUNT
195-Swisher-HAMP
220-Amos-PS
285-Haga-PS

Remember
, there's always upsets and I've picked a few here.

Who is the 5th team in your top five?

My fifth teamis John Marshall

ncref wrote:I ran the AAA brackets through some tournament software and I've attached the results. I might do it for AA/A if I get some time this week.

Unless something crazy with bonus points happens, South will run away with it with Wheeling Park in 2nd and Parkersburg in distant 3rd. There is a tight grouping afterwards, so bonus points will matter there.

Criteria I used to pick match winners
1) Rankings in latest poll
1a) If ranked in a different weight class, I just inserted them into their new weight class at the same ranking
2) For unranked wrestlers:
2a) Record as posted on the pairings sheet
2b) If record was close to even, I picked the one with the higher place finish

For bonus points, I assumed
1) Ranked will pin unranked
2) 1-4 ranked will pin 7+
3) 1-4 will major 5-6
4) 5-6 will major 7+

Analysis is that the pre-regional polls are about 70-75% accurate. Based on those polls, the prediction was 74% accurate on placewinners, 71% accurate on finals and 71% accurate on the eventual champ. Also 90% accurate in picking the Top 10 and 4/10 of the top 10 were in the same place.

ncref wrote:

ncref wrote:I ran the AAA brackets through some tournament software and I've attached the results. I might do it for AA/A if I get some time this week.

Unless something crazy with bonus points happens, South will run away with it with Wheeling Park in 2nd and Parkersburg in distant 3rd. There is a tight grouping afterwards, so bonus points will matter there.

Criteria I used to pick match winners
1) Rankings in latest poll
1a) If ranked in a different weight class, I just inserted them into their new weight class at the same ranking
2) For unranked wrestlers:
2a) Record as posted on the pairings sheet
2b) If record was close to even, I picked the one with the higher place finish

For bonus points, I assumed
1) Ranked will pin unranked
2) 1-4 ranked will pin 7+
3) 1-4 will major 5-6
4) 5-6 will major 7+

Analysis is that the pre-regional polls are about 70-75% accurate. Based on those polls, the prediction was 74% accurate on placewinners, 71% accurate on finals and 71% accurate on the eventual champ. Also 90% accurate in picking the Top 10 and 4/10 of the top 10 were in the same place.

How did you determine the accuracy of the top 10 when the state tournament only placed to the top 6? It also seems that you are showing that despite the potential for upsets, the Pill system was 71% for getting the top 2 ranked wrestlers (based on the polls of a limited number of coaches) into the finals. Not trying to make a point, just an observation.

KDunbar wrote:

ncref wrote:

ncref wrote:I ran the AAA brackets through some tournament software and I've attached the results. I might do it for AA/A if I get some time this week.

Unless something crazy with bonus points happens, South will run away with it with Wheeling Park in 2nd and Parkersburg in distant 3rd. There is a tight grouping afterwards, so bonus points will matter there.

Criteria I used to pick match winners
1) Rankings in latest poll
1a) If ranked in a different weight class, I just inserted them into their new weight class at the same ranking
2) For unranked wrestlers:
2a) Record as posted on the pairings sheet
2b) If record was close to even, I picked the one with the higher place finish

For bonus points, I assumed
1) Ranked will pin unranked
2) 1-4 ranked will pin 7+
3) 1-4 will major 5-6
4) 5-6 will major 7+

Analysis is that the pre-regional polls are about 70-75% accurate. Based on those polls, the prediction was 74% accurate on placewinners, 71% accurate on finals and 71% accurate on the eventual champ. Also 90% accurate in picking the Top 10 and 4/10 of the top 10 were in the same place.

How did you determine the accuracy of the top 10 when the state tournament only placed to the top 6? It also seems that you are showing that despite the potential for upsets, the Pill system was 71% for getting the top 2 ranked wrestlers (based on the polls of a limited number of coaches) into the finals. Not trying to make a point, just an observation.

Top 10 comment was for the teams. The 9 of the teams in the top 10 from the actual tournament matched the top 10 in the prediction top 10. The other math just validates or invalidates the accuracy of the coaches poll, depending on your point of view.

Looks like no one saw Casto bringing his A game.

aaacoach90 wrote:Looks like no one saw Casto bringing his A game.

If you consult all editions of Bear Tracks, you will see where I had Casto all season long.

Bearhugger wrote:

aaacoach90 wrote:Looks like no one saw Casto bringing his A game.

If you consult all editions of Bear Tracks, you will see where I had Casto all season long.

5th place at Powerade last year. You had to know he was coming in hot. Is he wrestling in College next year?

greencrush wrote:

Bearhugger wrote:

aaacoach90 wrote:Looks like no one saw Casto bringing his A game.

If you consult all editions of Bear Tracks, you will see where I had Casto all season long.

5th place at Powerade last year. You had to know he was coming in hot. Is he wrestling in College next year?

Yes he will wrestle on just haven't fully locked one in as of yet.

Congratulations on a great season and high school career to Casto.

My overall predictions were not the greatest but I tried to pick some upsets in a/aa and lost.
12-2 in AAA
8-6 in A/AA
20-8 overall

Hopefully the Dad from Ripley who had a meltdown earlier in the year because predictions hurt his and his son's feelings is doing ok, I worry about him when this thread gets moved back to the top.